Electoral Math Update: McCain must now convert Blue States
This morning, Chuck Todd (political director for NBC) officially moved VA and CO into the blue column (CNN had moved VA over a week ago). This puts Obama at 286, well above the 270 threshold.
The interesting thing is that the McCain camp is going after PA, a state that has been considered blue by most polls for weeks. The reasoning for this is that GOP fell behind in ground game in VA and CO, and they don't have the infrastructure in place to compete there. However, as Todd pointed out, even if McCain were to take PA, as well as FL, OH, NC, IN, and MO, Obama only has to take NV to still reach 270.
Unless a miracle happens, the race is over.
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16 commentsReplies
seemingly satanic said, (74 days ago)
I wish that I had your confidence, seriously. Being intensely misanthropic, I keep thinking that on election day record numbers of fucked up racists will leave their homes for the first time solely to vote against the black guy and we'll be stuck with four more years of this hellishness and war. I see the numbers and I think, they're not polling the right people.
Little by very little, I am thinking I am wrong.
FiZ said, (74 days ago)
@seemingly: I'm more in agreement with you. I've seen amazing support for Obama that I haven't for other candidates in a while, but I'm also alarmed at the blatant racism and other misinformed prejudices displayed against him. Plus, I never believe polls
bold as love said, (74 days ago)
I agree with Seemingly on this one. However, I talked to my grandparents the other day (two fairly big racists.) They're both voting Obama.
My grandma said, "I don't even care if he's black. McCain is an asshole and doesn't think for anyone other than people that are like himself. And that Sara Palin bimbo? Don't even get me started. If I were 35 years younger he might as well have picked me. I dropped out of high school at 14 and I'm more intelligent than she is..."
Reamworks SKG said, (74 days ago)
SOULCAMP! Barack H.Obama has won California. Devote your efforts to NO ON 8. Go volunteer to make calls
GX said, (74 days ago)
I'm surprised to hear that i'm in a blue state. The boos that I heard at the parade that were directed at the democrats were outrageous. I was standing in a sea of republicans. Luckily i was drunk enough to know it would be over quickly.
nomi oh my said, (74 days ago)
I agree with what Seemingly is saying. Hopefully, the big block of "undecideds" will counter their effects. Are there really people still on the fence for McCain? I'll take the chicken, thanks...
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/2008/10/27/081027sh_shouts_sedaris
DEWEY WINS! ;)
In truth, I hope you are right, but I personally will not believe it until I see it.
(Also, not exactly related, but I thought you might enjoy this: http://harpers.org/archive/2008/10/hbc-90003761 )
Dirty Lion said, (74 days ago)
From the early voting numbers, voters in Clark County (where Las Vegas is) and Washoe County (Reno) are voting Obama 2:1...and these two counties have 86% of Nevada's population :-)
soulcamp said, (74 days ago)
Wow, a lot of conspiracy folks around here. The racists have always been there, but they're also a small percentage (really), and they've been red all along. This race is over. McCain has run the worst campaign in the history of politics, and thanks to him (and people like the dishonorable Ted Stevens and Michele "McCarthy" Bachmann), the Republicans are dropping like flies.
But @Reamworks is right. We've got to put an end to this despicable Prop 8 bullshit, especially us Californians. If Prop 8 passes, I'm going to become violent.
Reamworks SKG said, (74 days ago)
One of the "Yes on 8" people said in today's times that if they lose, it's going to be Armageddon. So we put a "NO ON 8" sign at Armageddon just to be sure
soulcamp said, (73 days ago)
Spike Lee, whom I would consider to be moderately knowledgeable about race relations in this country, declared on Morning Joe today that race will not be a factor in this election. I agree.
Jay Def said, (73 days ago)
I wish my state could surprise me, but I'm certain that McCain will win Idaho. There is a lot of Obama support here in Boise, but I'm certain that in rural Idaho, McCain will win out.
I am happy to see that my co-worker (who is a pretty conservative catholic, and typically votes republican) has voted (absentee) for Obama. He weighed the two candidates and decided that McCain is the worst candidate.
soulcamp said, (72 days ago)
@Jay Def; Yeah, Idaho is pretty solidly red, and will likely be until we force you to secede! ;-)
BTW, I personally believe (and have since the Republican convention) that Obama will take not only PA, CO, and NV, but also OH and FL. It looks like VA and possibly NC and IN may even go his way.