October Surprise: Dow Falls below 10,000
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This is the Captain.
All hands, prepare to dive the boat. Make ready for 1MC. Dive, dive, dive. All hands, dive the boat. Give me a 3 degree downbubble.
Dive, dive, dive.
Well, this is horrific for anyone because the economy is collapsing hardcore and while we might not feel it down, we will definitely feel it when people are laid off because pretty much every company is going to have to slash their budget. I am even scared.
No surprise. It'll get worse and worse. I'll take 1-2 months just to set-up the Bailout Program and some more to start buying assets.
I recommend listening to this week's (or last weeks?) This American Life by NPR. They have a great discussion on why the credit and commercial paper market collapse is a huge issue that everyone will feel though no one can see right now (Today's FT also covers it).
Also lots of honest interviews by people who worked at the funds themselves. And why they are scared shitless.
Of course, I meant "it'll take 1-2 months" not "i'll take 1-2 months". I'm not cool enough to handle the whole entire global economy.
I'm more worried about the fact that Oil closed below $88 a barrel. While great for us and nearer to where it should be, it's a bad sign. For one, oil is tied to manufacturing. If people see less production/shipping there will be an excess of oil...oil prices go down.
It could also be an early sign of deflation, which is the devil. $700 bailout, less money being spent, less production....deflation...more liquid "old" money...no new money...deflation. Which actually means inflation, because the dollar falls and it takes more of them to buy stuff. It's all rather 'heady' stuff. If it's deflation, it's depression.

This is a surprise to who?