Delegate Math 101
For those in the Clinton camp who might have been napping through this subject, I will break it down.
Current delegate count - Clinton: 1719, Obama: 1918
May 20th Elections - Even if we're generous and assume that Clinton wins Kentucky by 40, and only loses Oregon by say 12, that puts the count at Clinton: 1778, Obama: 1918
June 1st Election - Again, we'll be super generous and give Clinton a 40 point victory in Puerto Rico. Delegate count Clinton: 1816, Obama: 1979
June 3rd Elections - No one really has any clue how these are going to go (because there's only 31 delegates at stake, so no one really cares). Let's again assume that Clinton's in-debt campaign manages to magically eek out a 20 point win in both Montana and South Dakota. Clinton: 1834, Obama: 1918
With the elections over, this leaves the remaining 215 superdelegates to decide the race. Since the magic number is 2026, this means Obama only needs to get 34 of the 215 supers, or a mere 16%, to clinch the nomination. Since February, Obama has been winning superdelegates at a ratio of 3.25:1 over Clinton.
Game over.
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32 commentsReplies
Reamworks SKG said, (195 days ago)
What are you? Anti-democracy? Let all the elections happen, get the votes counted and THEN declare a winner!
Angus MacSmitey said, (195 days ago)
But the Clinton campaign would admonish you to count the rogue delegates of Florida and Minnesota.
Why should they be punished and disenfranchised just because they disregarded the party, fucked up and broke the rules? Huh? Huh?
soulcamp said, (195 days ago)
@CM: They would also admonish you to exclude caucus states (the only way to achieve her "more people have voted for me" conclusion). And the real topper for the week is her claim that she'd have already won if the Democratic party used the REPUBLICAN rules for delegate count (i.e. non-proportional).
Is this the sign of a potential shift in political party affiliation for Clinton? Perhaps all her talk about beating McCain has a different meaning than we've been thinking. She's gonna go after the Republican nomination.
soulcamp said, (195 days ago)
You got to give it to her though - it takes a master of bullshit to go out and make these sort of claims in public while keeping a straight face. She is one hell of a politician.
Skanko said, (195 days ago)
WATCH OUT SNIPERS ARE FIRING AT US! oh wait, that never happened at all. my bad.
Xenu said, (195 days ago)
It's not opposition to Clinton that makes you sexist.
It's the derogatory, insulting, surprisingly venomous way that so many people I otherwise like and respect oppose her.
soulcamp said, (195 days ago)
Honestly, I am pretty convinced that Clinton knew it was over after Indiana. However, because she made such a big deal about not quitting (and the fact that her campaign is in debt), she's not going to drop out until Obama reached 2026. She has pretty much given up the negative campaigning against Obama (besides the offhand remark here and there), and as far as I can tell, ceased to spend any further money on television ads and such. Instead, she's relegated herself to finding new and creative ways of explaining to the public why she's still in the race, no matter how absurd they sound.
Angus MacSmitey said, (195 days ago)
It's easier to raise campaign funds when you're still in the campaign, after all. Something needs to be done about the debt.
soulcamp said, (195 days ago)
@Xenu: Perhaps to some degree, but that's not the way some of her campaigners are spinning it. There are still some top-level people who are making the claim that the only reason Obama is ahead is because they'd rather see a black man in office than a woman. It's pretty far-fetched to make that assertion about any but a small minority, especially considering how well she did against possibly the most dynamic and well-spoken Democratic candidate since JFK.
Lams said, (195 days ago)
Has anyone else noticed that her voice sounds like the aliens from "Mars Attacks"?
Lams said, (195 days ago)
Ok. I do have a serious comment though. She really has displayed the same kind of BS underhanded tactics the Republic party have been using all along.. against another democrat! I mean fine - If you want to give the republicans a taste of their own medicine that would be one thing but c'mon. She really is part of faction of the democratic party I like to call "republican light"
Skanko said, (195 days ago)
@xenu - id agree to an extent as well. i have no problem with a woman being president. id be totally cool with it. i just have had a large distaste for hillary since she was first in the white house with bill. and i wanted to be open minded about her when this started. but she just hasn't changed my mind about her at all. i dont know what it is, but she just annoys me on many levels, none of which have to do with her vagina.
Centropomus said, (195 days ago)
Hillary doesn't believe in your elite math. She's not going to throw her lot in with the mathematicians.
soulcamp said, (195 days ago)
Personally, of the many reasons I dislike Clinton (none of which have to do with her sex), the biggest was the fact that her and Bill are perceived as two of the most divisive politicians in the country (possible just behind Bush). In a time when this country really needs someone who can reunite everyone behind some common goals, she had ample time to convince me and the rest of the country that this perception was wrong. Instead, she tried to convince the world that she is a fighter, and ran one of the most divisive primary campaigns in history, proving, at least to me, that my fears were legitimate.
Centropomus said, (195 days ago)
That's what she said about economics when economists came out of the woodwork to say that the gas tax holiday was a stupid idea. It seems to fit her delegate math argument too.
Reamworks SKG said, (195 days ago)
I just wanted, for the entertainment value of it, to see Bill Clinton as First Man.
soulcamp said, (195 days ago)
@centropomus: I got the correlation, but I wouldn't be surprised at this point to really hear her say that. I think SNL may hire her as a writer soon - she's far funnier than their current ones.
soulcamp said, (195 days ago)
@Reamworks: I wonder if the fashion press would have covered his attire.
0get2dachoppa0 said, (195 days ago)
Hilary is going to hold this against everyone forever. . . oh, but we won't know it
oh no
she'll wait til some random moment to bring it up again
she's already shown the gossiping trait
she's already shown the fake tears trait
I'm really surprised she hasn't just had him shot yet.
Angus MacSmitey said, (194 days ago)
"The math is relentless, yet Obama hasn't won yet, and Hillary Clinton shows no sign of stopping. She will travel to Florida on Wednesday to argue that he wants to win the nomination by disenfranchising the state's Democratic primary voters, a visit that can only damage him in a swing state crucial to Obama's chances in November." - From "Lady, You're in My Way" by John Dickerson on The Slate.
This paragraph kind of pisses me off. It seems indicative of an "if I can't be president, neither can you" attitude.
Sources: cnn.com, demconwatch.blogspot.com