soulcamp's Posts Tagged obama on Go, Team Internet!
Electoral Math Update: McCain must now convert Blue States
This morning, Chuck Todd (political director for NBC) officially moved VA and CO into the blue column (CNN had moved VA over a week ago). This puts Obama at 286, well above the 270 threshold.
The interesting thing is that the McCain camp is going after PA, a state that has been considered blue by most polls for weeks. The reasoning for this is that GOP fell behind in ground game in VA and CO, and they don't have the infrastructure in place to compete there. However, as Todd pointed out, even if McCain were to take PA, as well as FL, OH, NC, IN, and MO, Obama only has to take NV to still reach 270.
Unless a miracle happens, the race is over.
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Christopher Hitchens on why he is supporting Obama-Biden
MCCAIN LACKS THE CHARACTER AND TEMPERAMENT TO BE PRESIDENT. AND PALIN IS SIMPLY A DISGRACE.
Fun with Electoral Math
This site provides an interactive electoral college map that allows you to play around with potential outcomes. If you start with the 2008 Swing States view, it becomes very easy to see why McCain has a monumental task in front of him. Even giving him the 5 biggest of the swing states (FL, PA, OH, MI, and NC), totaling 100 electoral votes, he STILL doesn't make it to 270. In fact, according to the site's calculations, based on current state polling, Obama is favored to win by 97%.
The Tire-Gauge Solution: No Joke
A well-written article on a topic that is not getting nearly enough press coverage.
Delegate Math 101
For those in the Clinton camp who might have been napping through this subject, I will break it down.
Current delegate count - Clinton: 1719, Obama: 1918
May 20th Elections - Even if we're generous and assume that Clinton wins Kentucky by 40, and only loses Oregon by say 12, that puts the count at Clinton: 1778, Obama: 1918
June 1st Election - Again, we'll be super generous and give Clinton a 40 point victory in Puerto Rico. Delegate count Clinton: 1816, Obama: 1979
June 3rd Elections - No one really has any clue how these are going to go (because there's only 31 delegates at stake, so no one really cares). Let's again assume that Clinton's in-debt campaign manages to magically eek out a 20 point win in both Montana and South Dakota. Clinton: 1834, Obama: 1918
With the elections over, this leaves the remaining 215 superdelegates to decide the race. Since the magic number is 2026, this means Obama only needs to get 34 of the 215 supers, or a mere 16%, to clinch the nomination. Since February, Obama has been winning superdelegates at a ratio of 3.25:1 over Clinton.
Game over.
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